Prediction markets have listed the Green Bay Packers as overwhelming favorites to acquire Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, with one Polymarket snapshot showing an 87% chance.
Easton Butler posted the figure early Wednesday, writing “Polymarket has the Packers getting Jonathan Taylor with 87%.”
Traditional sportsbooks paint a more modest picture. Hard Rock Bet listed the Packers at +1200 to land Taylor, implying roughly a 7.7% probability and ranking them sixth among listed destinations behind the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings and the Colts themselves.
Multiple reports have still named Green Bay among teams that have checked in on Taylor’s availability as the Nov. 10 trade deadline approaches. ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport identified the Packers alongside the Seahawks, Broncos and Vikings as clubs that have pondered or are expected to consider a deal. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported the Colts rejected an offer involving a second-round pick plus another selection. A source told Packers On SI that a trade “is on the table.”
Taylor has produced steadily for the 2-6 Colts. Through eight games he has 148 carries for 610 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt, plus 21 receptions for 202 yards. He led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season with 18 and finished with 1,585 rushing yards.
The Packers sit at 5-3 but own the league’s worst rushing attack, averaging just 60.6 yards per game. That ranks last among 32 teams. Josh Jacobs has played only two games after missing the first six on the commissioner’s exempt list. He has 32 carries for 75 yards and one touchdown in those contests, averaging 2.3 yards per attempt, along with 11 receptions for 68 yards and two scores.
Taylor turns 28 in January and remains under contract through 2028 after signing a two-year, $44 million extension in August that included $39 million in guarantees and a $15 million signing bonus. An acquiring team would take on roughly $5 million in 2026 base salary, about $16 million in 2027 and nearly $18 million in 2028. Green Bay has limited remaining salary-cap space this year and projects to be over the cap in 2027 without restructures.
The Colts have already traded defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and offensive tackle Quenton Nelson as they begin a rebuild. Owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon has been described as viewing Taylor as a core piece, and the asking price has been compared to the package the Carolina Panthers received for Christian McCaffrey in 2022—a second-, third- and fourth-round pick plus a future fifth.
Taylor, a Wisconsin Badger, carries an obvious local connection. The Packers explored a trade for him in August 2023, but the Colts sought wide receiver Christian Watson as part of the return. Watson recently signed a four-year extension with Green Bay.
Jordan Schultz reported that sources believe a Taylor trade is now more likely than not, with the Packers among five or six teams that have inquired. Any deal would require premium draft capital, and Green Bay holds multiple picks in the middle and late rounds of the 2027 draft.
The market remains fluid less than a week from the deadline. Kalshi has shown the Giants and other clubs with higher probabilities in recent days. Whether the Packers’ interest translates into a serious offer, or whether the 87% Polymarket spike was simply an anomaly, should become clearer by Nov. 10.
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