The Green Bay Packers are heading into the 2026 NFL season with plenty of optimism surrounding their chances, but one national analyst believes the team could find itself on the wrong side of an extremely competitive NFC North.
Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton has projected Green Bay to finish the season with a 9-8 record. Even more surprisingly, that mark would leave the Packers in last place in the division, which would mark the first time since 2005 that such an event occurred.
Moton’s biggest concern is the Packers’ defense and, specifically, the absence of star pass rusher Micah Parsons early in the season. Parsons is recovering from a torn ACL and meniscus damage and is expected to miss at least the opening portion of the campaign.
Moton also mentions that Green Bay will be starting the season without running back Josh Jacobs.
“The Packers will start the season without their best defensive player and their most established offensive skill player,” Moton wrote. “They’ll open the season with three of their first four games on the road and finish the campaign against the Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans and Detroit Lions in four of their last five contests.
Those absences could be particularly important because Green Bay faces several difficult opponents during the early part of its schedule, giving the team little margin for error. That’s especially considering how long Parsons might remain sidelined.
The concern extends beyond the defensive line. Green Bay’s secondary will be under pressure to perform while Parsons is unavailable, since his ability to generate pressure can help cover up weaknesses in coverage. If the defense struggles to consistently get off the field, the Packers could be forced into more difficult games than expected.
At the same time, Green Bay has reasons to believe the prediction is too pessimistic. Quarterback Jordan Love continues to provide the foundation of the offense, while the team has several young players capable of taking significant steps forward.
A healthy Parsons returning later in the season could also dramatically improve the defense during the most important portion of the schedule.
The NFC North could ultimately come down to a handful of games. Moton projects the Detroit Lions to win the division at 11-6, with Chicago finishing 10-7 and Minnesota also going 9-8.
That would make Green Bay’s projected last-place finish less about being a poor team and more about surviving a division where every opponent has legitimate postseason aspirations.
If the Packers can navigate the opening weeks without falling too far behind and receive strong play from Love and the defense, they could quickly prove this prediction wrong.
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